Securities Analysts as Information-seekers

Nancy Sadler Baldwin
Morgan Stanley, Inc.
New York, NY, 10036-8293

Ronald E. Rice
School of Communication, Information & Library Studies
Rutgers University
New Brunswick, NJ 08903-5067

Abstract

This study develops and tests hypotheses that individual characteristics and institutional resources influence the information sources and communication channels that securities analysts use and also influence the analysts' outcomes, and that use of these sources and channels influences the outcomes of analysts' activities. The data for this study were collected through a telephone survey administered to a random sample of 100 securities analysts from 40 of the largest investment banking firms in the United States and the United Kingdom. The results show that individual characteristics have little influence on the information sources and communication channels used by analysts, but institutional resources significantly influence the information sources and communication channels analysts use, and also directly influence outcomes. The paper ends with implications for information science professionals.

Problem Statement

There have been many changes in the past 20 years that present Wall Street and securities analysts with new challenges. Constant developments in information technology and the need for global information are also changing the way analysts obtain and distribute information. These additional demands are increasing the value of timely information while reducing the amount of time analysts have to spend on research. It therefore seems useful to investigate the influences on, behavioral patterns of, and outcomes from, the information seeking behaviors of securities analysts.

User Studies

We can better understand securities analysts' information-seeking behaviors by briefly reviewing some related research from prior user studies.

User Studies in the Sciences, Social Sciences and Humanities

Organizational gatekeepers that facilitate the flow of information from outside to their colleagues (Allen, 1977). Gatekeepers read more journals and have more external contacts than members of the organization who are not gatekeepers; they generate more ideas and engage in more problem solving; and they also give practical and political advice.

Invisible colleges consist of small groups of scientists within any given research area that monitor the changes taking place in their field by staying in contact with one another (Price, 1963) before, during, and after meetings of professional associations (APA, 1968; Garvey & Griffith, 1968; The Johns Hopkins Center for Research in Scientific Communication, 1969). Invisible colleges exist among workers in business and industry as well as in academia, based both on substantive issues as well as social ones (Campbell, 1975). "Old boy networks" are a valuable source of information which continue to influence the way securities analysts gather information (Danzig & Wells, 1993).

Prestige, such as through rankings, influences information access and seeking. The APA (1963) and Menzel (1966) concluded that in order to locate significant work in their fields, scientists select articles based on the identity of the authors; indeed, the research of physicists of high rank is more likely to be read because of their visibility (Cole & Cole, 1967). In general, the amount and variety of information consumed by scientists and engineers are strongly correlated with their performance (Allen, 1969; Parker, Lingwood & Paisley, 1968; Shilling, Bernard & Tyson, 1964).

User Studies of Public Libraries by Information-seekers

Several studies (Chen & Hernon, 1982; Dervin, 1976; Prentice, 1980; Wilson, 1977) found that people tend to use interpersonal sources -- co-worker, friend, relative or neighbor -- rather than the public library.

User Studies of Knowledge Workers

Knowledge workers continually monitor, store, and disseminate company and industry related information. Securities analysts, like scientists and engineers, have long uninterrupted segments of time to spend on one study. CEOs and managers have only short segments of time to spend on any one issue, and tend to rely on personal sources of data (Aguilar, 1967; Collings, 1968; Hofer, 1976; and Keegan, 1967). Securities analysts and scientists, like most knowledge workers, spend most of their time obtaining information, conducting their own research, and writing reports.

User Studies of Securities Analysts

In one study, securities analysts considered company reports as the most widely used general communication source, and personal conversations with company officials were considered the most valuable form of special communication. The written reports of securities analysts at other firms, followed closely by news, business, financial, and professional publications were, the most frequently cited sources of non-company communication (Latane & Tuttle, 1970). Chang's (1981) study of 1,000 analysts in the United States, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand concluded that financial statements are an analyst's single most valuable source of information. In addition, securities analysts determined that annual and interim financial reports, prospectuses and communications with management are essentially equal as important sources of information. They considered news reports, corporate press releases and advisory services to be less important.

Although the amount of time spent marketing their research varies from firm to firm (on average top analysts spend 45% of their time marketing to clients), many analysts in a Wall Street survey noted that excessive marketing can have a negative impact on their research (Top Analysts Spend Almost Half Their Time on Marketing, 1986, p. 1).

Securities analysts who work in investment firms of varying size and prestige have access to different staff and resources to assist them in acquiring information and writing research reports, attending conferences, meetings and visits to the companies they cover, and use of printed and computerized resources. Securities analysts who work in information rich firms have heightened visibility, stand a better chance of being ranked, and receive higher pay as their research is more widely distributed. Securities analysts who attend more annual meetings and trade shows have greater access to contacts outside of their firm.

Aguilar (1967), Allen (1977) and Rosenbloom and Wolek (1970) found that experience is a significant influence on the information/communication channels used by scientists and technologists. When analysts begin coverage of a new company, they spend a lot of time obtaining historical information from the library. But as their coverage of the company or industry continues, they have less need for background type information. They depend on the data analysis and current statistics they obtain from their own computerized resources. In turn, the time required to perform this research increases the amount of hours they work.

Gender studies indicate that women in many male dominated professions are more likely to be passed over for promotion and receive less recognition and lower pay than their male counterparts (Cannings, 1988; Danzig & Wells, 1993; Uchitelle, 1993). Older workers are more likely to stay at their job for a longer period of time than younger workers, and are as satisfied and productive, if not more so, than younger workers (Galagan, 1990; Smith & Hoy, 1992). Employees who hold MBAs or PhDs experience greater income (Jones, 1990) and place greater emphasis on job satisfaction than on financial success (Berney, 1990). Membership in professional associations is an indication of professional interest and leads to higher productivity and satisfaction. It also provides an entree to contacts who can promote analysts in the rankings. Ranking and other forms of professional visibility such as membership in professional associations appear to lead to greater income (Nudell, 1992).

Securities Analysts: Roles and Rankings

Securities analysts, portfolio managers and traders each provide advice and stock recommendations to clients based upon this information (Geyer, 1969). Almost 3,000 securities analysts work in investment banking firms preparing research reports for such large institutional clients as pension funds and insurance companies, as well as large retail clients (Lamont, 1995). Analysts' recommendations hold great power, representing a substantial profit, or loss, to the stockholder and to the company. Analysts must understand new accounting rules and laws in order to determine their effect on the companies and industries they follow, and they must also be versed in the disclosure requirements of securities laws and regulations.

May Day 1975 brought about an end to fixed commission rates for stock and bond trading in the United States, as a result of a ruling by the SEC (Gillis, 1985, p. 16). This forced clients to bargain for the cheapest fees, and analysts to market their research to institutions in an effort to bring in trades and justify their salaries (Kleinfield, 1985), resulting in fewer hours spent on research, and shorter and more frequent reports. The deregulation of London's securities markets on October 27, 1986 contributed to the internationalization of financial markets by making it easier to compete in the international arena (Nicholas et al., 1987). The stock exchange abolished its system of minimum commissions and introduced its new computer-assisted dealing system -- Stock Exchange Automatic Quotations (SEAQ) -- which displays prices on a continuously updated basis (Rider, 1987). The October 1987 stock market crash caused all the major markets to lose a large percent of their value. This interconnectedness and the growing activity within the capital markets has increased the need for quick and accurate information, facilitated by information systems available to traders and securities analysts (Lohr, 1986).

Several U.S., U.K. and European industry studies are conducted regularly. The studies rank individual securities analysts and equity research departments in investment firms.

Hypotheses

H1a-e.
Individual characteristics (age, experience, gender, hours worked) of securities analysts influence their use of information sources and communication channels.
H2a-d.
Institutional resources (staff, budget, support for attendance at annual meetings and trade shows, full service firms, personal contacts) lead to greater use of information sources and communication channels by securities analysts.
H3a-f.
Individual characteristics (gender, age, MBA degree, members of professional associations, hours worked, experience) of securities analysts influence the outcomes of their information activities.
H4.
Greater institutional resources (staff and budget size; attendance at meetings, trade shows and conferences; computer usage; and working in full-service firms) lead to more positive outcomes.
H5a-b.
Use of information sources and communication channels (informal channels, external contacts, computer use, marketing and dissemination of reports) leads to more positive outcomes.

More review, and more details on hypotheses, method and results, are available in Baldwin & Rice, 1997.

Method

The investment banking firms included in the study were selected from the 1990 Institutional Investor list of the largest U.S. investment firms ranked by consolidated capital (Bent & Halliday, 1990). The names of the securities analysts working in the equity research departments of the selected firms were obtained from the 1990 edition of Nelson's Directory of Investment Research. The analysts were stratified by type of firm: regional, full-service, and foreign firms. Within these 40 firms, the top 13 full-service firms (excluding the one for which the first author was employed) had a total population of 743 analysts, and the top 27 regional firms had a total population of 341 analysts. One random number table for each of the three types of firm was generated to select a final overall total of 100 securities analysts to be interviewed, proportional to the type of analysts in the whole population (50 domestic full-service analysts, 20 foreign full-service analysts, and 30 regional analysts).

A questionnaire was developed and pre-tested using 10 securities analysts. Telephone interviews were conducted with the securities analysts selected by the random number tables. If the analyst decided not to participate in the study, the telephone call was terminated and the next number on the random number table was used to choose another analyst. The interview tapes were transcribed and coded.

Results

Descriptive Comments

34% of the analysts responded that they don't want to read competitors' research reports. They are afraid that if they admit to reading their competitor's research they will be accused of copying their work. It is also the consensus of these analysts that they don't want to have their judgment clouded by what someone else is saying. On the other hand, a domestic full-service firm analyst responded that there is a benefit to reading competitors' research, as it improves your understanding of how people in the investment community look at the company or industry in question, and that it is just another check you can use on your own analysis. Several of the regional firm analysts said they belong to a round table of regional firms and are allowed to obtain reports written by analysts who work for those firms.

More analysts in foreign firms and domestic regional firms have limited journal and database usage due to budgetary constraints than do domestic full-service firm analysts. 77% of the analysts, especially those in domestic full-service firms, responded that they or their staff use commercial databases. Some receive earnings information faxed directly from the companies, or corporate news and press releases by e-mail and messenger.

79% of the analysts responded that they find analyst meetings to be valuable or extremely valuable. One foreign firm analyst said, "The companies are normally prepared to give out more information at an analyst meeting than at any other time." 49% of the analysts responded that they obtain valuable information from trade shows, and find trade shows a good place to network, gossip, develop industry contacts, talk to competitors and see how users are responding to a company's products. 65% of the analysts responded that time is a major factor in the number of annual meetings and trade shows they attend. Most of the domestic analysts replied that they depend almost entirely on informal information. 77% of the analysts responded that they check on the reliability of the information they obtain informally; one method is to check it formally with someone at the company, and the other is to confirm it with several different independent sources, such as their customers and competitors.

80% of the analysts responded that they send copies of their research reports to the news media. One domestic full-service firm analyst commented: "Analysts have a good reason to send their reports to the news media, because it helps enhance the distribution of the report and also creates media awareness that the analyst exists." 53% of the analysts responded that they are writing shorter reports, while 10% indicated that they are writing longer reports. One analyst said that they are producing shorter day-to-day pieces, which they fax or e-mail to their clients. 54% of the analysts responded that they are spending more time marketing their research, at the cost of "keeping in touch with your companies and your industry."

73% of the analysts responded that they are satisfied with their research. However, as one said, "By the time you get every single little thing the stock price has already moved, so it is of no value." The most frequent source of dissatisfaction seems to be management's failure to disclose enough information about the company.

Canonical Correlation Relationships

We turn to canonical correlation analysis, using only those variables that were statistically significant in the bivariate correlations (not reported here). Canonical correlation analysis attempts to find the strongest correlations between linear combinations of two sets (independent and dependent) of variables. The variable's loading (a standardized structure coefficient) on the variate shows how much each variable contributes to the variate (not reported here). Several canonical correlations may exist as a result of several linear combinations of variables within each set, and each correlation is tested for statistical significance. Only overall results are reported here.

There are two significant canonical correlations among individual characteristics and institutional resources, with information sources and communication channels, explaining 58% and 46% of the variance, respectively.

Overall, individual influences have little significant canonical influence on the use of information/communication channels. Analysts who make little use of their internal libraries, and who are influenced by cost and time restrictions, tend to communicate more frequently with company executives and attend fewer annual meetings and trade shows. The second canonical correlation shows that analysts who have less experience, are members of analyst associations, have a support staff, and work for large regional firms, tend to read more newspapers, communicate more frequently with company executives, and make greater use of external contacts.

The canonical correlation between information/communication channels and outcomes is not significant, although it explains 20% of the variance. The information/communication channels variate is characterized by the influence of frequent external communication with company executives, and the infrequent use of personal files on ranking and productivity. The outcome variate is characterized by analysts who are ranked in the polls, and who publish a large number of research reports.

The partial canonical correlation (of individual and institutional influences on outcomes, controlling for intervening information sources) is significant, explaining 40% of the variance. Overall, analysts who are experienced, work for full-service firms, have access to a staff, and made infrequent use of their internal libraries, (individual characteristics and institutional resources variates) tend to published fewer research reports, and are more likely to be ranked (outcome variates) independent of the intervening influence (if any) of the use of communication channels and information sources.

Discussion

Summary of Results

In general, individual characteristics have little influence on the information source and communication channels used by securities analysts, and thereby do not have a significant indirect or direct influence (except for years worked as an analyst) on the outcomes of analysts' information activities. However, institutional resources do significantly influence the information source and communication channels analysts use, and thus have both an indirect and direct positive influence on some of the analysts' outcomes.

Implications for Corporate Librarians and Library Schools

Since analysts work long hours, travel extensively to visit companies, and attend meetings and conferences, they need to be able to access information while at home and travelling. Librarians can make information on CD-ROMs, commercial on-line databases, and in-house databases available to analysts and other users via LANs (Local Area Networks) and WANs (Wide Area Networks). Several securities analysts indicated that they depend heavily upon the filings that public corporations are required to make to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Since 1993 corporations have been filing these documents electronically via the EDGAR (Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis, and Retrieval) system. Several commercial information systems, including LIVEDGAR and Federal Filings, now make these documents available within minutes after they have been filed. The Internet also provides access to SEC documents, but at a considerable time delay. These are examples of systems that the information professional should be making available and training securities analysts to access from their desk tops. If the end-users do most of their own research, library professionals will have time to perform research that requires more expertise. More time can also be spent on constructing databases for the end-user and customizing information systems to support the research needs of analysts and other end-users.

Securities analysts think of themselves as gatekeepers in their organizations. Librarians can also serve as gatekeepers by constructing databases of useful contacts and valuable resources both inside and outside of the firm.

The construction of a "virtual" or "digital" library also necessitates the need to work more closely with other technology professionals within the firm. Most corporations have an Information Technology Department which is responsible for implementing and maintaining the firm's technology. As library professionals are also interested in providing "desk top" applications to users, it seems logical that these two groups of information professionals could work closely together or even merge to form one department to provide securities analysts and other user groups with the best and most timely information available. Unfortunately, the professional cultures of the two groups seem to clash.

Corporate libraries no longer have the need or the resources to develop large research collections, nor do they want or need detailed cataloguing. In The Value of Corporate Libraries Study 53% of the senior managers surveyed wanted all workers to have access to on-line databases via networks, 6% wanted more end-user training, and 12% wanted a connection to the Internet (Matarazzo & Prusak, 1995, p. 18-19). These are areas in which information professionals should and can play a major role, if they have adequate technological expertise. Working librarians need to update their technological skills through continuing education courses and seminars offered by library schools, programs and conferences presented by professional associations, and frequent communication with publishers and vendors.

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